Democrats enter Election Day with strong congressional odds across prediction markets

Democrats were heavily favored to win control of both congressional chambers as polls opened on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, according to InvestingLive. The pricing showed a stronger Democratic advantage in the House than in the Senate.

At around 8 AM ET, Kalshi and Polymarket prices implied a 94 to 95 percent probability of Democrats taking the House and a 78 percent probability of taking the Senate, InvestingLive reported in its November 3, 2026 update published at 9:00 AM ET.

Senate expectations have climbed

Kalshi’s probability of Democratic Senate control stood at 74 percent at midday Monday, according to InvestingLive. Earlier readings were 63 percent in early October and 44 percent in March.

That sequence shows how substantially expectations for Senate control have shifted toward Democrats. Even so, the Election Day prices left more uncertainty around the Senate outcome than the House result.

Model puts Democrats slightly further ahead

Nate Silver’s model assigned Democrats an 82 percent probability of winning the Senate and a 96 percent probability of winning the House, according to InvestingLive.

Both model estimates exceeded the reported market probabilities. The difference was larger for the Senate, where Silver’s figure was 4 percentage points above the 78 percent market reading.

What it means for prediction markets

• The chambers carry different levels of uncertainty: House pricing of 94 to 95 percent reflected a more decisive Democratic advantage than the Senate’s 78 percent.
• Senate pricing has moved sharply: Kalshi’s readings rose from 44 percent in March to 63 percent in early October and 74 percent at midday Monday.
• Markets and the model point in the same direction: Silver’s 82 percent Senate and 96 percent House estimates favored Democrats somewhat more strongly, but neither forecasts nor market prices establish the election result.