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Foulkes draws near-certain market odds as Rhode Island turnout climbs

The Providence Journal reports on Election Day morning that prediction markets point toward Helena Foulkes in the Rhode Island governor race, with traders on Kalshi giving her a 98 percent chance of winning and Polymarket 97 percent. A record 139,976 Rhode Islanders had voted by mail or early in person by the end of Monday, and total turnout could approach the state's non-presidential-year record of 393,882 set in 2006.

Prediction markets strongly favored Helena Foulkes in the Rhode Island governor race on Election Day morning, according to the Providence Journal. Kalshi traders assigned her a 98 percent chance of winning, while Polymarket put that probability at 97 percent.

The figures were reported on Nov 3, 2026, at 9:00 AM ET. They reflect traders’ expectations rather than an election result.

Early voting sets a record

According to the Providence Journal, a record 139,976 Rhode Islanders had cast ballots by mail or early in person by the end of Monday.

Total turnout could approach 393,882, the state’s record for a non-presidential year, set in 2006. That remains a possibility, not a final turnout count.

Two markets signal similar expectations

Kalshi and Polymarket differed by one percentage point in their assessments of Foulkes’ prospects. Both placed her probability of victory close to certainty, leaving little distance between their prices and a fully certain outcome.

The turnout figures provide a separate measure of election participation. The supplied reporting does not establish whether that participation favors Foulkes or explain how traders incorporated it into their estimates.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Strong agreement: Kalshi’s 98 percent and Polymarket’s 97 percent indicate closely aligned expectations for Foulkes.
  • Residual uncertainty: Neither market priced victory as certain; these Election Day morning estimates are not confirmed outcomes.
  • Turnout is a distinct signal: The record 139,976 early and mail ballots, and the possibility of approaching the 2006 turnout benchmark of 393,882, do not by themselves establish a winner.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Providence Journal
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