Australia’s prediction market scrutiny puts licensing and access in focus

Australia’s ASIC said on November 5 that many prediction market contracts offered to retail users have the characteristics of bets and pose heightened market integrity risks, according to GCAuthority.

The scrutiny raises public-interest concerns about retail prediction markets in Australia. ASIC’s assessment addresses many contracts, rather than classifying every prediction market product in the same way.

Licensing and platform restrictions

According to GCAuthority, no prediction market operators held an Australian financial market licence as of August 3, 2026. That licensing snapshot predates ASIC’s November 5 comments.

Access restrictions also affect two named platforms. Kalshi lists Australia as a restricted jurisdiction, while ACMA has blocked Polymarket on the basis that it is a prohibited interactive gambling service, according to GCAuthority.

Those are distinct circumstances: Kalshi’s jurisdictional restriction concerns its own platform access, while Polymarket faces a block imposed by ACMA. Neither should be conflated with ASIC’s separate comments about contract characteristics and market integrity.

What it means for prediction markets

• Contract classification matters: ASIC’s view that many retail contracts resemble bets places the distinction between financial products and gambling at the centre of the scrutiny.
• The licensing date is important: The absence of licensed operators is stated as of August 3, 2026, not as a newly established count on November 5.
• Australian access is constrained: Kalshi’s restricted-jurisdiction designation and ACMA’s block of Polymarket represent different barriers for users in Australia.