Northern Illinois favored as thin trading complicates college basketball pricing
College basketball markets for the November 2 Grambling State against Northern Illinois game in Rock Hill price Northern Illinois at 72 percent on Polymarket and 66 cents on Kalshi, with Grambling State at 45 percent on both exchanges. Kalshi's board showed only about 2,115 dollars in volume, so early prices in the thin market can move quickly.
Northern Illinois was favored over Grambling State across two prediction exchanges ahead of their November 2 game in Rock Hill, according to Action Network. The quoted prices differed between Polymarket and Kalshi.
Prices diverge across exchanges
Action Network’s November 2, 2026 update, published at 1:30 AM ET, put Northern Illinois at 72 percent on Polymarket and 66 cents on Kalshi. Grambling State was listed at 45 percent on both exchanges.
Those figures require care when comparing the teams. The reported prices for Northern Illinois and Grambling State do not sum to 100 percent on either exchange, so they should not be presented as a complementary pair of win probabilities.
Limited volume adds uncertainty
Kalshi’s board showed only about $2,115 in volume, according to Action Network. That leaves the early pricing supported by relatively little trading activity.
In a thin market, prices can shift quickly. The snapshot establishes Northern Illinois as the higher-priced team on both exchanges, but limited volume is an important qualification when assessing the strength of that signal.
What it means for prediction markets
- A shared favorite, different pricing: Northern Illinois stood at 72 percent on Polymarket versus 66 cents on Kalshi.
- Check the full board: Grambling State’s reported 45 percent on both exchanges means the quoted team prices are not complementary.
- Volume matters: About $2,115 in Kalshi volume makes rapid early price changes a key consideration when interpreting the market.
Sources & attribution
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- Action Networkactionnetwork.com
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