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Bass holds Polymarket advantage as Los Angeles runoff poll shows tie

Polymarket prices incumbent Karen Bass at 58 percent and Councilmember Nithya Raman at 42 percent ahead of the Tuesday, November 3 mayoral runoff, with 16.8 million dollars traded and Bass down three points since early Friday. The latest Berkeley IGS and Los Angeles Times poll has the race tied at 40 percent each with 19 percent undecided.

Incumbent Karen Bass is priced at 58 percent on Polymarket against Councilmember Nithya Raman at 42 percent ahead of the Tuesday, November 3 Los Angeles mayoral runoff, according to RG.

The market has recorded 16.8 million dollars in trading. Bass’s price has fallen three points since early Friday, narrowing her advantage over Raman.

Market pricing diverges from polling

The latest Berkeley IGS and Los Angeles Times poll puts both candidates at 40 percent, with 19 percent undecided. Those figures show an even contest among surveyed voters despite Bass’s lead in market pricing.

The two measures capture different things: the poll measures voter preferences, while the market prices reflect expectations about who will win. The undecided share leaves a substantial portion of surveyed voters without a stated choice heading into the runoff.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Bass remains the market favorite: Her 58 percent price leads Raman’s 42 percent, although the three-point decline since early Friday indicates a reduced advantage.
  • Polling offers no clear leader: The 40 percent–40 percent tie contrasts with the market’s preference for the incumbent.
  • Uncertainty remains material: With 19 percent undecided in the poll, neither candidate’s current support establishes a decisive polling edge.
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Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    RGrg.org
    Publisher
    https://rg.org
    Source URL
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