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Allen leads MVP pricing as Williams gains and Purdy slips

IPredicta reports prediction market prices read on November 3 put Josh Allen first in the NFL MVP race at 33 percent on Kalshi and 34 percent on Polymarket, ahead of Joe Burrow at 20 and 15 percent. Caleb Williams climbed 6 points from the October 28 reading to 11 percent on Kalshi and 10 percent on Polymarket, while Brock Purdy eased 4 points to 14 percent on both venues.

According to iPredicta, November 3 prediction-market readings placed Josh Allen at the front of the NFL MVP race, with prices implying 33 percent on Kalshi and 34 percent on Polymarket.

Joe Burrow trailed Allen at 20 percent on Kalshi and 15 percent on Polymarket. Those readings put Allen’s lead over Burrow at 13 percentage points on Kalshi and 19 on Polymarket.

Williams advances while Purdy retreats

Caleb Williams rose 6 points from the October 28 reading, reaching 11 percent on Kalshi and 10 percent on Polymarket, according to iPredicta. His prices remained below those of Allen and Burrow on both venues.

Brock Purdy moved in the opposite direction, easing 4 points to 14 percent on each platform. That left Purdy below Burrow but above Williams in both sets of prices.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Agreement on the leader: Allen held the highest price among the named contenders on both platforms, with only 1 percentage point separating his readings.
  • Different assessments of Burrow: His 20 percent Kalshi price stood 5 percentage points above his 15 percent Polymarket price—the largest cross-platform gap among the four players listed.
  • Movement below the top: Williams’ rise and Purdy’s decline left them separated by 3 percentage points on Kalshi and 4 on Polymarket. These readings capture market pricing, not a settled MVP outcome.
KalshiPolymarketNFLInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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