Netanyahu exit contract draws largest volume in 50-market tracker
A live tracker following 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets on geopolitics, economics and technology counted 457.5 million dollars traded across the tracked set as of its November 2 reading. The Netanyahu market was the most traded of the 50, ahead of the market on Mojtaba Khamenei remaining head of state in Iran at the end of 2026, priced at 85.3 percent with 40.6 million dollars traded.
World Monitor’s November 2 reading of a live tracker showed $457.5 million traded across 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets covering geopolitics, economics and technology.
The contract on Netanyahu being out by the end of 2026 led the tracked group, with $125.0 million in trading volume and a price of 20.5 percent, according to World Monitor.
Trading activity and pricing diverge
The Netanyahu contract’s volume lead did not translate into a high price for the outcome. At the reported reading, it was the most traded market in the set while pricing an exit by the end of 2026 at 20.5 percent.
Next was the market on Mojtaba Khamenei remaining head of state in Iran at the end of 2026. World Monitor put its trading volume at $40.6 million and its price at 85.3 percent.
What it means for prediction markets
- Volume is not an outcome forecast: The Netanyahu market led trading activity, but its 20.5 percent price remained distinct from that measure of participation.
- Contract wording matters: The Netanyahu market concerns an exit, while the Mojtaba Khamenei market concerns remaining in office. Their prices refer to different types of outcomes.
- The ranking has a defined scope: The volume lead applies to the 50 markets tracked in the November 2 reading, not necessarily every market on Polymarket and Kalshi.
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