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NATO–Russia clash contract draws $13.0 million as year-end deadline approaches

World Monitor's live board on November 1 tracks 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets with 494 million dollars in combined volume. The NATO and Russia clash market is priced at 14.5 percent and closes at the start of 2027.

According to World Monitor, a Polymarket contract on whether NATO and Russia will have a military clash by December 31, 2026 was priced at 14.5 percent, with $13.0 million traded.

The report, published on Nov 1, 2026 at 7:15 AM ET, places the contract within a broader snapshot of prediction-market activity rather than reporting a military development.

Deadline and market context

World Monitor’s live board on November 1 tracks 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi. Their combined trading volume is $494 million.

The NATO–Russia contract closes at the start of 2027. Its stated event deadline is December 31, 2026, distinguishing the period covered by the question from the timing of the market’s closure.

The supplied snapshot contains no earlier prices or volume comparisons. It therefore does not establish whether the 14.5 percent price represents an increase or a decline in traders’ assessment of the outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 14.5 percent price is a market assessment of a clash occurring within the specified window, not evidence that one has occurred.
  • The $13.0 million traded measures activity in this contract; the $494 million total covers all 50 markets on World Monitor’s board.
  • The summary does not provide the contract’s detailed resolution criteria, leaving the precise definition of a qualifying military clash unspecified here.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    World Monitor
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
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