El-Sayed reaches 77 percent as Michigan leads midterm market shifts

Democrat El-Sayed’s probability in Kalshi’s Michigan Senate market rose to 77 percent from 67 percent over the last seven days, according to DeFi Rate.

The move in the contest against Rogers amounted to 10 percentage points, making it the largest shift on the midterm board.

Michigan moves within a broader Democratic advantage

The figures were reported on Nov 1, 2026, at 8:15 AM ET. They show market pricing moving further toward El-Sayed over the preceding week, rather than a change in an election result.

At the national level, Democrats stand at 72 percent for overall Senate control across Kalshi and Polymarket, according to DeFi Rate. That places El-Sayed’s Michigan probability above the reported probability of Democratic control of the chamber, though the two markets concern different outcomes.

What it means for prediction markets

• Michigan saw the largest weekly adjustment: El-Sayed’s rise from 67 percent to 77 percent was the biggest move on the midterm board.
• Race and control contracts remain distinct: Michigan pricing concerns El-Sayed against Rogers; the 72 percent figure concerns which party controls the Senate.
• The available figures describe pricing, not its cause: The supplied reporting does not identify what drove the Michigan move or provide separate Senate-control probabilities for each platform.