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Andrew Novak’s Kalshi surge tops tracked sports prediction markets

The VidantaWorld Mexico Open winner market on Kalshi moved from 2 percent to 89 percent for Andrew Novak, an 86-point jump that ranks as the biggest single move on the live board. The move leads all sports markets tracked across Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini.

Andrew Novak’s implied chance of winning the VidantaWorld Mexico Open rose from 2 percent to 89 percent on Kalshi, according to DeFi Rate.

The update, published Nov 1, 2026 · 8:15 AM ET, puts Novak’s repricing at the top of the tracked sports-market moves.

A standout move across venues

DeFi Rate describes the change as an 86-point jump and the largest single move on the live board. The reported endpoints, however, imply a 87-percentage-point increase, leaving a discrepancy in the supplied figures.

The move leads all sports markets tracked across Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini. That comparison establishes its relative size within the tracked markets, but the supplied summary does not explain what drove it.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The shift from 2 percent to 89 percent represents a substantial reversal in the market’s assessment of Novak’s winning prospects, not a confirmed tournament result.
  • The cross-platform ranking concerns the size of the move; it does not establish that Novak’s price changed similarly on Polymarket or Gemini.
  • The discrepancy between the stated 86-point jump and the reported endpoints matters when comparing the magnitude of market changes.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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