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Recession probabilities edge lower as Kalshi and Polymarket remain apart

Kalshi prices a US recession in 2026 at 2.5 percent, down one point in seven days, while Polymarket prices it at 5.5 percent, down three points. Both exchanges put the odds of a 2026 downturn in the low single digits as of November 1.

Kalshi and Polymarket both priced a low probability of a US recession in 2026 as of November 1, according to Sikt Intelligence. The two exchanges nevertheless showed different assessments of the risk.

Kalshi’s recession probability stood at 2.5 percent, down one percentage point over seven days.

Lower odds on both exchanges

Polymarket priced the same broad economic outcome at 5.5 percent, a decline of three percentage points over seven days. Its probability fell more sharply than Kalshi’s but remained higher.

The figures, published on Nov 1, 2026 at 8:15 AM ET, leave a three-percentage-point gap between the exchanges. Both probabilities were in single digits.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both exchanges moved toward a lower implied likelihood of a 2026 recession over the seven-day period, with the larger decline on Polymarket.
  • The remaining gap shows that the exchanges were not pricing recession risk identically. The supplied summary does not include contract definitions or settlement criteria, limiting direct comparison.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    Sikt Intelligence
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