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Miami Heat title pricing diverges across Polymarket US and Gemini

Rivo, reading prices at 7:13 PM ET on November 4, lists the 6 point gap on the Miami Heat title contract among the widest it currently tracks. A gap only pays after both venues fees and settlement rules are accounted for.

The Miami Heat NBA championship contract stood at 1 cent on Polymarket US and 7 cents on Gemini, according to Rivo. The 6-point difference was among the widest gaps Rivo was tracking at the time.

A snapshot across two venues

Rivo recorded the prices at 7:13 PM ET on November 4. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET, making the quoted prices a snapshot taken before publication rather than a later update.

The comparison concerns the Miami Heat title contract on both venues. Rivo’s description places the spread among its largest currently tracked differences, but does not establish that it was the largest.

Price differences are not net returns

The 6-point spread alone does not establish a profitable opportunity. According to Rivo, any payoff from the gap depends on accounting for fees at both venues and their settlement rules.

Those qualifications distinguish the displayed price difference from what a trader could ultimately retain. The supplied summary does not specify the fees or settlement terms, so it does not support a calculation of the net payoff.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The venue matters: Rivo’s snapshot showed the same team’s championship contract priced at 1 cent on Polymarket US versus 7 cents on Gemini.
  • Timing limits the comparison: The figures reflect 7:13 PM ET on November 4, not a confirmed current spread.
  • The headline gap is not enough: Both venues’ fees and settlement rules must be accounted for before assessing whether the difference pays.
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Sources & attribution

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    Rivo
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