Jackson’s Maine Senate market advantage widens as Election Day arrives

Democrat Troy Jackson’s implied chance of defeating Republican Senator Susan Collins reached 73 percent in Kalshi’s Maine Senate market on Election Day, according to Kalshi News. Collins, who is seeking a sixth term, stood at 27 percent.

The report, published Nov 3, 2026, at 7:15 AM ET, put Jackson’s probability above the 64 percent recorded late last week—a gain of 9 percentage points.

Poll also puts Jackson ahead

A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll cited by Kalshi News showed Jackson leading Collins 54 percent to 45 percent. That is a 9-percentage-point advantage in voter support, distinct from the market’s assessment of his likelihood of winning.

Both measures favor Jackson, but they describe different things: the poll measures support among respondents, while the market prices the election outcome.

Counting could require another stage

According to Kalshi News, the race may require ranked-choice counting if no candidate secures a majority of first-choice votes.

That leaves the counting process as another element for market readers to watch alongside the candidates’ initial vote shares. Jackson’s polling lead and higher market probability do not establish whether that additional stage will be necessary.

What it means for prediction markets

• The market has moved toward Jackson: His probability rose from 64 percent late last week to 73 percent on Election Day, with Collins at 27 percent.
• Polling and pricing are not interchangeable: Jackson’s 54 percent poll support is a vote-share measure, not the same as his 73 percent market-implied chance of victory.
• The first-choice majority matters: Ranked-choice counting may be required if no candidate wins a majority, making the counting procedure relevant to how the outcome is determined.