Infiniti FeedNov 3, 2026 · 7:45 AM ET

Senate odds trail model forecasts as traders favor Democratic congressional control

Action Network reports Kalshi and Polymarket both price Democrats at about 95 percent for the House on Election Day morning, with a full Democratic sweep at 70 percent on Kalshi and 72 percent on Polymarket. Nate Silver's FLIPR model puts Democratic Senate chances in the high 70s, above the market prices, while a Northwestern model adjusting market prices put Republican chances of holding the Senate at 23.4 percent on October 27.

Election Day morning pricing points strongly toward Democratic control of the House, but the Senate remains less certain. According to Action Network’s Nov 3, 2026 report, published at 7:45 AM ET, Kalshi assigns Democrats a 70 percent chance of Senate control, compared with 73 percent on Polymarket.

Senate markets sit below model estimates

Nate Silver’s FLIPR model places Democratic Senate chances in the high 70s, according to Action Network. That puts its estimate above both exchanges’ prices, with Kalshi showing the larger gap.

A Northwestern model that adjusts market prices put Republicans’ chances of retaining the Senate at 23.4 percent on October 27. That estimate predates the Election Day market readings, limiting a direct comparison across the figures.

House pricing shows closer agreement

For the House, Kalshi and Polymarket each price Democratic control at about 95 percent, according to Action Network. The exchanges therefore show much closer agreement on that chamber than on the Senate.

A full Democratic sweep is priced at 70 percent on Kalshi and 72 percent on Polymarket. Those readings sit close to each platform’s Democratic Senate odds, while remaining well below their House estimates.

What it means for prediction markets

The Senate is the main point of divergence: Democratic control prices of 70 percent on Kalshi and 73 percent on Polymarket fall below FLIPR’s high-70s estimate.
Sweep pricing closely tracks the Senate: Kalshi’s sweep and Senate probabilities are equal; Polymarket’s sweep price is one percentage point below its Senate price.
Timing matters for model comparisons: Northwestern’s 23.4 percent estimate for a Republican Senate hold dates to October 27, rather than Election Day morning.

KalshiPolymarketSenateSilverElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published: Nov 3, 2026 · 7:45 AM ET

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Action Networkactionnetwork.com
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https://www.actionnetwork.com
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Senate odds trail model forecasts as traders favor Democratic congressional control

Senate markets sit below model estimates

House pricing shows closer agreement

What it means for prediction markets

Sources & attribution

Related

Senate markets sit below model estimates

House pricing shows closer agreement

What it means for prediction markets