Maine occupies pivotal Senate ranking as markets lean toward Democratic control
DaveManuel.com reports ranking this year's Senate races from most to least Republican by market odds puts Maine 19th, the race that would hand Republicans their 50th seat, with Troy Jackson favoured at about 71 percent. Its tracker prices Senate control at 75 cents for Democrats on Kalshi and 77 cents on Polymarket, and House control at 93 cents on Kalshi and 95 cents on Polymarket.
Maine sits at the critical point in a market-based ordering of this year's Senate contests, according to DaveManuel.com. Ranking races from most to least Republican by market odds places Maine 19th—the contest that would deliver Republicans their 50th seat.
Maine’s place in the Senate map
The report, published Nov 3, 2026, at 1:45 PM ET, puts Troy Jackson’s chances at about 71 percent. That makes him the market favourite in the race occupying this pivotal position.
The ranking and Jackson’s odds measure different things: one locates Maine within the broader Senate map, while the other indicates the market’s assessment of the contest itself. Neither is an election result.
Chamber-control pricing
DaveManuel.com’s tracker shows Democratic Senate control priced at 75 cents on Kalshi and 77 cents on Polymarket. For House control, the corresponding prices are 93 cents on Kalshi and 95 cents on Polymarket.
What it means for prediction markets
- Maine’s 19th-place ranking makes it a key contest to watch alongside Senate-control contracts: in this ordering, it represents Republicans’ 50th seat.
- Jackson’s roughly 71 percent odds should not be confused with the separate prices for control of the chamber.
- Polymarket’s control prices exceed Kalshi’s by 2 cents for both the Senate and the House, while House prices are higher than Senate prices on both platforms.
Sources & attribution
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- https://davemanuel.com
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