Bass holds Kalshi edge as Los Angeles runoff polling stays even
Covers reports in its November 3 update at 1:32 p.m. ET that Kalshi prices Bass at 58 cents and Raman at 43 cents in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff, with about 109 million dollars traded on the market as of Election Day after the candidates traded the lead three times in October. A late-October Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey had the race tied at 40 percent each, with nearly one in five likely voters still undecided.
Kalshi favored incumbent Karen Bass over Nithya Raman in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff on Election Day, despite a final poll showing neither candidate ahead, according to Covers.
In its November 3 update at 1:32 p.m. ET, Covers put Bass’s contract price at 58 cents and Raman’s at 43 cents. Those prices correspond to implied probabilities of 58 percent and 43 percent, respectively.
Market lead contrasts with polling tie
The final Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey, conducted in late October, placed both candidates at 40 percent. Nearly one in five likely voters remained undecided, according to Covers.
That leaves a clear distinction between the two measures: the poll recorded equal voter support, while Kalshi prices assigned Bass the stronger chance of winning. A candidate’s implied probability of victory is not a forecast of her vote share.
A shifting contest with substantial trading
About 109 million dollars had been traded on the market as of Election Day, Covers reported. The candidates exchanged the market lead three times in October before Bass held the advantage in the November 3 snapshot.
Those changes show that the market’s preference had not been stable throughout the closing month. The supplied reporting does not identify what drove the reversals or explain why Bass’s latest advantage differed from the polling tie.
What it means for prediction markets
- Different measures: The 58 percent and 43 percent market probabilities concern who wins; the poll’s 40 percent for each candidate measures voter support.
- Unresolved voter choices: Nearly one in five likely voters was undecided in the late-October survey, limiting how firmly the tie could describe the eventual result.
- A time-specific signal: Bass’s edge reflects the November 3 update at 1:32 p.m. ET, following three October lead changes—not a settled outcome.
Sources & attribution
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