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Senate forecasts converge as markets trail polling models by 2.9 points

A Yahoo Finance analysis averaging Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt against the Nate Silver and Harvard ElectIt polling models puts prediction markets at 77.3 percent for Democrats to take the Senate against 80.2 percent from the polling models. The Senate gap averaged 7.3 points since September 1, while the House gap was 2.2 points on Tuesday, with markets at 94 percent against 96.2 percent from polls.

Prediction markets and polling models moved closer on Democrats’ chances of taking the Senate on Election Day morning, according to Yahoo Finance. Its analysis put the difference at 2.9 percentage points, compared with an average gap of 7.3 points since September 1.

Senate estimates draw closer

Yahoo Finance averaged forecasts from Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt and compared them with the Nate Silver and Harvard ElectIt polling models. The market average assigned Democrats a 77.3 percent chance of taking the Senate, while the polling-model average stood at 80.2 percent.

Both measures favored a Democratic Senate outcome, but markets remained less optimistic than the polling models. The Election Day morning gap was narrower than the average since September 1; the supplied figures do not establish whether market estimates rose, polling-model estimates fell, or both moved.

House forecasts show a smaller divide

The House comparison showed an even tighter spread on Tuesday. Markets put Democrats’ chances at 94 percent, against 96.2 percent from the polling models—a difference of 2.2 percentage points, according to Yahoo Finance.

The analysis, published November 3, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, therefore showed markets assigning lower Democratic probabilities than polling models in both chambers. Both sets of forecasts also placed Democrats’ House chances above their Senate chances.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The Senate disagreement narrowed: The 2.9-point Election Day morning spread was below the 7.3-point average since September 1, though those figures alone do not explain the movement.
  • House estimates were more closely aligned: The 2.2-point gap was smaller than the Senate spread, with both approaches assigning Democrats probabilities above 90 percent.
  • Averages are not individual-platform forecasts: The market figures combine Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt; the supplied analysis does not give separate probabilities for each venue.
KalshiPolymarketPredictItSenateSilverElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Yahoo Finance
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