Kalshi leads midterm trading as Polymarket faces another post-election test
Trefis reports that as of about October 23, roughly 1.1 billion dollars had traded on Kalshi's 2026 midterm markets against about 340 million dollars on Polymarket, leaving the platform that led 2024 election night in second place this cycle. It notes Polymarket's volume fell 84 percent the morning after the 2024 election, with a smaller drop expected this time because the midterms are smaller than a presidential race.
Kalshi has drawn roughly $1.1 billion in trading on its 2026 midterm markets, compared with about $340 million on Polymarket, according to Trefis. The figures, measured as of about October 23, put Kalshi’s volume at about 3.2 times its rival’s.
The comparison marks a change from 2024 election night, when Polymarket led. In this cycle’s midterm trading, Trefis places it second behind Kalshi.
Volume after the vote
The figures establish a substantial gap between the platforms, but their timing matters. Trefis’s report, published November 3, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, describes trading as of about October 23 rather than a final election-night tally.
The next question is how much activity remains after the election. According to Trefis, Polymarket’s volume dropped 84 percent the morning after the 2024 election. It expects a smaller decline this time because the midterms are smaller than a presidential race.
What it means for prediction markets
- Platform leadership has shifted: The reported midterm totals put Kalshi ahead of the platform that led on 2024 election night.
- The comparison is a dated snapshot: The roughly $1.1 billion and $340 million figures reflect activity as of about October 23, not final totals.
- Post-election activity is a separate test: Trefis expects a smaller Polymarket volume decline than the 84 percent drop after the 2024 election, but that remains an expectation rather than an observed result.
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