Kansas leads Kalshi’s weekly Senate shifts as Democratic odds climb
DeFi Rate reports its biggest-moves board, using daily closes to its 5:04 p.m. ET observation, shows the Kansas Senate market up 24 points in seven days to 65 percent for Democrats on Kalshi. Texas Senate rose 9 points to 75 percent and Maine Senate rose 9 points to 70 percent over the same span.
The Kansas Senate market recorded the largest seven-day move on Kalshi in DeFi Rate’s biggest-moves board, with the implied probability of a Democratic win increasing from 41 percent to 65 percent.
That 24-point rise put Kansas ahead of the Texas and Maine Senate markets in the reported comparison. DeFi Rate’s figures use daily closes through its 5:04 p.m. ET observation; the report was published Nov 3, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET.
Texas and Maine also move higher
The Texas Senate market rose 9 points over the same seven-day period, reaching 75 percent for Democrats, according to DeFi Rate.
Maine’s Senate market also gained 9 points, bringing the Democratic probability to 70 percent. Both markets ended above Kansas, despite Kansas registering the larger weekly increase.
What it means for prediction markets
- Movement and level tell different stories: Kansas had the largest reported seven-day shift, while Texas had the highest Democratic probability among the three markets at 75 percent.
- The measurement window matters: These changes reflect daily closes through the stated observation time, rather than a full account of intraday price movements.
- Prices are not outcomes: The figures describe market-implied probabilities. The supplied summary does not identify what drove the changes.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- DeFi Ratedefirate.com
- Publisher
- https://defirate.com
- Source URL
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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