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Bass leads Raman in prediction markets as Los Angeles votes

DeFi Rate averages prices across Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini observed early on November 3 at 58 percent for incumbent Karen Bass and 42 percent for Nithya Raman in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff. Bass rose about 14 points in a week on Kalshi, and the market drew 221,000 dollars of combined volume in 24 hours, with about 74 percent traded on Kalshi.

According to DeFi Rate, incumbent Karen Bass held a 58 percent market-implied chance of winning the Los Angeles mayoral runoff early on November 3, compared with 42 percent for Nithya Raman.

The Election Day snapshot averages prices across Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini. DeFi Rate’s account was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 7:00 AM ET.

Bass gains as trading concentrates on Kalshi

Bass’s position on Kalshi strengthened by about 14 points over a week, according to DeFi Rate. That movement is specific to Kalshi, while the 58 percent figure reflects the average across all four platforms.

Combined trading volume reached 221,000 dollars over 24 hours. About 74 percent of that activity took place on Kalshi, giving it the largest share of trading in the reported period.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The early November 3 average puts Bass ahead of Raman by 16 percentage points, but market prices are not election results.
  • Bass’s roughly 14-point weekly rise on Kalshi indicates a shift toward the incumbent on that platform; the supplied figures do not establish equivalent moves elsewhere.
  • Kalshi accounted for about 74 percent of combined volume, so trading activity was concentrated rather than evenly distributed across the four venues.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
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