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Kalshi weather market growth puts settlement sources in focus

Turbine reports Kalshi's climate and weather vertical is up roughly 500 percent year over year and pacing toward 1.1 billion dollars annualized. Daily high and low temperature contracts now settle on The Weather Company data, while precipitation and snowfall still settle on National Weather Service reports and hurricanes on National Hurricane Center advisories.

Kalshi’s climate and weather vertical is growing rapidly, with activity up roughly 500 percent year over year and pacing toward 1.1 billion dollars annualized, according to Turbine.

The report, published Nov 1, 2026 at 6:45 PM ET, highlights both the vertical’s expansion and the different data providers used to settle its contracts.

Settlement sources differ by contract

Daily high and low temperature contracts now use The Weather Company data for settlement, according to Turbine. That makes its data the relevant reference for determining outcomes in those markets.

Precipitation and snowfall contracts still settle using National Weather Service reports. Hurricane contracts, meanwhile, rely on National Hurricane Center advisories, Turbine reports.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The roughly 500 percent year-over-year increase signals substantial growth in Kalshi’s climate and weather vertical. The 1.1 billion dollars annualized figure describes its current pace, not a completed annual total.
  • Settlement sources are contract-specific: temperature, precipitation, snowfall and hurricane markets do not all rely on the same provider.
  • For readers assessing potential outcomes, the distinction matters: the designated settlement source—not weather information generally—is the relevant reference.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
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    Turbine
    Publisher
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