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Kalshi’s election settlements hinge on newsroom consensus, not market odds

Kalshi does not call elections itself and settles a race when at least four of eight major news organizations, including the Associated Press, call it and none disagrees. Kalshi and Polymarket signed media deals ahead of the midterms, but the main television networks kept prediction market odds off their election night coverage, and Bloomberg analysis put midterm trading at around 1.5 billion dollars.

Kalshi relies on news organizations rather than making its own election calls, according to GamingToday. A race settles when at least four of eight major news organizations call the result and none disagrees.

The Associated Press is among those eight organizations. The rule makes agreement among the designated outlets—not trading prices—the basis for settlement.

Media partnerships meet broadcast limits

Kalshi and Polymarket signed media deals ahead of the midterms, according to GamingToday. Those agreements came as election trading attracted substantial activity.

Yet the main television networks left prediction-market odds out of their election night coverage. The partnerships therefore did not translate into those networks presenting market probabilities during their broadcasts.

Bloomberg analysis put midterm trading at around 1.5 billion dollars. That figure measures trading activity; Kalshi’s settlement standard remains tied to news organizations’ calls.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Calls determine settlement: Kalshi requires at least four of eight designated news organizations, including the Associated Press, to call a race, with none disagreeing.
  • Odds are not official outcomes: A market price does not substitute for the newsroom consensus required by Kalshi’s rule.
  • Media reach has limits: Despite Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s pre-midterm media deals, the main television networks did not include prediction-market odds in election night coverage.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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