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December Fed hike odds align across prediction markets and futures

PredictionMarketPicks reports its November 4 read, updated 11:30 AM ET, puts a December 2026 Fed rate hike at 80.5 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with fed funds futures at 81.7 percent, narrowing the three-venue spread to 1.2 points.

According to PredictionMarketPicks, Kalshi and Polymarket each put the probability of a December 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike at 80.5 percent in its November 4 reading.

Fed funds futures placed the probability at 81.7 percent, leaving a spread of 1.2 percentage points across the three venues.

A closely matched snapshot

The figures were updated at 11:30 AM ET on November 4, 2026. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET.

The reading puts both prediction markets at the same probability, with futures slightly higher. The supplied summary describes a narrowing spread but provides no earlier readings to establish how much that gap changed.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Matching prices: Kalshi and Polymarket show no probability gap in this snapshot, with both at 80.5 percent.
  • Close futures comparison: The futures-implied probability is 1.2 percentage points above each prediction-market reading.
  • Timing matters: These figures reflect the 11:30 AM ET update, rather than necessarily the prices at publication.
  • Limited trend evidence: Without prior readings, the snapshot supports a close alignment but not a measure of the speed or extent of convergence.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionMarketPicks
    Publisher
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