Louisville temperature contract shows sharp split between traders and weather models
Weather Markets compares Kalshi daily high temperature markets in 24 United States cities with 82 weather model runs and the live thermometer readings that settle them. It says traders were the better forecasters in 133 of 164 markets in the first week it tracked.
Kalshi traders priced Louisville’s daily high temperature contract for 66 degrees or below at 81 cents, against a 29 percent probability from forecast models, according to Weather Markets. The outlet identified it as the widest gap in its comparison that day.
The figures appeared in an update published Nov 2, 2026, at 7:30 AM ET. They capture a pronounced disagreement between market pricing and model forecasts, rather than a settled temperature outcome.
Comparing prices with forecasts
Weather Markets compares Kalshi’s daily high temperature markets across 24 United States cities with 82 weather model runs. Its analysis also incorporates the live thermometer readings used to settle those markets.
The comparison puts three distinct measures alongside one another: traders’ prices, weather-model projections and the temperature observations that determine the result. For Louisville, the reported market price leaned substantially more toward a high of 66 degrees or below than the models did.
An early record for traders
According to Weather Markets, traders were the better forecasters in 133 of 164 markets during the first week it tracked. That is an early finding from the outlet’s monitoring, not a resolution of the Louisville disagreement.
The supplied summary does not explain how forecast performance was scored or provide the individual model runs and thermometer readings. Those omissions limit what can be concluded about why Louisville showed the largest divergence.
What it means for prediction markets
- Louisville is a notable test of market-model disagreement: The 81-cent price and 29 percent model probability point in markedly different directions for the same temperature threshold.
- The reported trader advantage has a defined scope: Weather Markets’ finding covers 133 of 164 markets in its first tracked week; it does not establish which side will be right in Louisville.
- Settlement remains observation-based: The thermometer readings, rather than either the market consensus or the model forecasts, determine the outcome.
Sources & attribution
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