Election betting volume hits $1.5 billion amid scrutiny of media ties
KuCoin, citing Bloomberg and Dune data, says midterm election trading on Kalshi and Polymarket totals about 1.5 billion dollars. It notes CNBC's deal with Kalshi includes customer acquisition and a minority equity stake, CBS News lists Kalshi as a sponsor, and CNN and Fox say they will not use prediction odds in election night political coverage.
Trading tied to the midterm elections on Kalshi and Polymarket totals about $1.5 billion, according to KuCoin, citing Bloomberg and Dune data. The figure comes as relationships between prediction-market platforms and news organizations face scrutiny.
Media outlets take different approaches
According to KuCoin, CNBC’s agreement with Kalshi includes customer acquisition and a minority equity stake. Those elements extend the relationship beyond the use of market probabilities in coverage.
CBS News lists Kalshi as a sponsor, KuCoin says. The summary provides no further details about that sponsorship or its terms.
CNN and Fox, meanwhile, say they will not use prediction odds in their election night political coverage, according to KuCoin. That stated restriction concerns election night political reporting, rather than every possible use of prediction-market data.
What it means for prediction markets
- Volume is not a forecast: The roughly $1.5 billion total describes trading activity across Kalshi and Polymarket, not the probability of any election outcome.
- Commercial ties matter for context: CNBC’s customer-acquisition arrangement and minority equity stake, alongside CBS News’s sponsorship listing, are relevant distinctions when assessing media relationships with Kalshi.
- Election night exposure will vary: CNN and Fox’s stated decisions mean prediction odds will not feature in their election night political coverage, despite the trading activity reported by KuCoin.
Sources & attribution
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Related
- Kalshi and Polymarket use different election night settlement rules, with Kalshi able to settle on a consensus of media calls, PredictReport reports
- Merrimack priced at 70 percent on Polymarket and 69 cents on Kalshi against App State at 46 percent on both exchanges, Action Network reports
- Kalshi prices Pete Ricketts at 70 cents against Dan Osborn at 31 cents in the Nebraska Senate race, PredictionMarketsPicks reports
- Prediction markets appear on page one in half of sampled midterm forecast searches, a CasinoReviews.net study finds, BusinessWire reports
- Polymarket prices Palantir at 85 percent and Apple at 81 percent to beat earnings on Monday, with ON Semiconductor at 55 percent, TipRanks reports
- Clean energy, housing and healthcare stocks seen as beneficiaries as Polymarket prices a Democratic sweep at 72 percent ahead of the midterms, Reuters reports