Kalshi signals near certainty on Democratic sweep of Congress

Kalshi priced Democratic control of the House at 100 percent and a Democratic Senate majority at 99 percent, according to Reuters, in a late election-night reading published Nov 3, 2026 · 11:15 PM ET.

The figures put both chambers close to the same market-implied outcome, with House pricing at the maximum probability and Senate pricing one percentage point below it.

Congressional pricing and the dollar

The supplied Reuters summary describes prediction-market probabilities, rather than confirmed election results. It does not provide vote counts or details about the contracts behind those readings.

Analysts at ING Bank said the dollar could come under short-term pressure if Democrats win control of both chambers, according to Reuters. That assessment is conditional on a Democratic sweep; the supplied material does not report a corresponding dollar move.

What it means for prediction markets

• Little uncertainty remained in the quoted prices: Kalshi’s 100 percent House reading and 99 percent Senate reading reflected near-total confidence in Democratic control.
• Pricing is not confirmation: The probabilities alone do not establish the election outcome or confirm contract settlement.
• The currency implication remains conditional: ING Bank’s assessment links potential short-term dollar pressure to Democrats securing both chambers, not merely to the market pricing that outcome.