Polymarket’s volume share contracts as US exchange revises trader incentives
DeFi Rate's volume tracker puts Polymarket's two exchanges at 17.2 percent of combined face-value volume with Kalshi in the 30 days before October 29, down from 93.8 percent in October 2024, Gaming America reports. Polymarket US has responded with nine CFTC filings between October 2 and October 26 amending seven deposit, rebate and referral programs to win traders back.
Polymarket’s two exchanges accounted for 17.2 percent of combined face-value trading volume with Kalshi in the 30 days before October 29, according to Gaming America, citing DeFi Rate’s volume tracker.
That compares with 93.8 percent in October 2024. The figures show a substantial shift in the distribution of trading volume between the platforms, though they do not establish whether Polymarket’s absolute volume declined.
US exchange adjusts incentive programs
Polymarket US has responded with changes aimed at attracting traders back, according to Gaming America. Between October 2 and October 26, it submitted nine CFTC filings amending seven deposit, rebate and referral programs.
Those filings document an effort to compete for trading activity. The supplied reporting does not establish whether the revised programs have increased Polymarket US volume or reversed the broader share decline.
What it means for prediction markets
- The denominator matters: The 17.2 percent figure measures Polymarket’s two exchanges against their combined face-value volume with Kalshi, not against the entire prediction-market industry.
- Share is not absolute activity: The comparison with October 2024 establishes a loss of relative volume share, but does not by itself reveal changes in total trading activity.
- Incentives remain an open test: The nine CFTC filings show Polymarket US adjusting its approach to trader acquisition and retention; their effectiveness is not established by the figures provided.
Sources & attribution
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- Gaming America
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