Netanyahu exit contract leads tracked trading despite low yes price
World Monitor's live board of 50 tracked Polymarket and Kalshi markets, read on November 4, ranks the market on Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office by the end of 2026 first by volume at 125 million dollars traded and a 17.5 percent yes price. The board totals 460 million dollars traded across its tracked markets, with the market on a United States invasion of Iran before 2027 second at 77 million dollars and 16.5 percent.
According to World Monitor, the contract on Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office by the end of 2026 led its live board of 50 tracked Polymarket and Kalshi markets when read on November 4. It recorded 125 million dollars in trading volume, with a yes price of 17.5 percent.
Trading concentrated in two geopolitical questions
World Monitor’s tracked markets had total trading volume of 460 million dollars. The Netanyahu contract ranked first by volume within that selection, rather than across all markets on either platform.
The second-largest contract concerned a United States invasion of Iran before 2027. According to World Monitor, it had attracted 77 million dollars in volume and carried a yes price of 16.5 percent.
Volume and pricing tell different stories
Both contracts combined substantial trading activity with yes prices below 20 percent. Their volume rankings measure activity on the tracked board; they do not indicate that traders viewed either outcome as likely.
The snapshot was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 12:15 AM ET. The supplied figures provide a point-in-time comparison, without a price or volume history showing how either contract reached its position.
What it means for prediction markets
- Activity is not likelihood: The Netanyahu contract led the tracked board at 125 million dollars traded, while its yes price stood at 17.5 percent.
- Scope matters: The ranking covers World Monitor’s 50 tracked Polymarket and Kalshi markets, not a stated comprehensive ranking of both platforms.
- Deadlines define the questions: The Netanyahu contract concerns departure by the end of 2026; the Iran contract concerns a United States invasion before 2027.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- World Monitor
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to World Monitor”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Polymarket Bitcoin dip to 57,500 dollars in November draws 266,309 dollars at about 5 percent, BestBitcoinCasino reports
- Bitcoin finished up in 47 percent of its last 1,238 Kalshi 15-minute windows, and crypto is 14 percent of all prediction market trading, DeFi Rate reports
- Kalshi whale tracker records a 366,200 dollar win on the Suns-Warriors under from a 31,800 dollar stake, Rivo reports
- Polymarket whale money reaches 12.3 million dollars across 875 large trades in 24 hours, led by Democratic House control at 4.2 million, Rivo reports
- Polymarket election contracts resolve through the UMA process with a two-hour challenge period, and recounts can delay payouts for weeks, Covers reports
- Kalshi's September 2027 Fed contract falls 51c to 65c, the biggest mover on the whole Kalshi leaderboard