Politics loses trading share as Kalshi and Polymarket activity expands
Bloomberg data cited by Survivalnomics shows political betting accounted for just 1 percent of trading on Kalshi and Polymarket last month, down from two-thirds during the 2024 presidential election, even as overall trading across both platforms has risen more than twentyfold since October 2024. Election turnover on Kalshi was roughly unchanged in the final midterm week versus the same period before the 2024 election, while Polymarket's election volume fell significantly.
Political betting represented just 1 percent of trading on Kalshi and Polymarket last month, according to Survivalnomics, citing Bloomberg data. That compares with two-thirds during the 2024 presidential election.
The shift comes amid a much larger trading base. Overall activity across the two platforms has increased more than twentyfold since October 2024, with sports and crypto driving the move away from a politics-heavy mix, according to Survivalnomics.
Election activity diverges between platforms
On Kalshi, election turnover in the final midterm week was roughly unchanged from the comparable period before the 2024 election. Its expanding overall business therefore has not translated into a similar increase in election trading during that window.
Polymarket’s election volume, by contrast, fell significantly over the comparison period, according to Survivalnomics. The two platforms’ combined political share thus masks different patterns in their election markets.
What it means for prediction markets
- Share and volume tell different stories. Politics accounts for a far smaller portion of trading, but Kalshi’s election turnover was roughly stable in the specified comparison.
- Platform differences matter. Polymarket’s significant election-volume decline contrasts with Kalshi’s largely unchanged activity.
- Overall growth is not an election-demand proxy. The more-than-twentyfold increase in total trading since October 2024 has coincided with politics becoming a much smaller category.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Survivalnomics
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Survivalnomics”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Polymarket Bitcoin dip to 57,500 dollars in November draws 266,309 dollars at about 5 percent, BestBitcoinCasino reports
- Bitcoin finished up in 47 percent of its last 1,238 Kalshi 15-minute windows, and crypto is 14 percent of all prediction market trading, DeFi Rate reports
- Kalshi whale tracker records a 366,200 dollar win on the Suns-Warriors under from a 31,800 dollar stake, Rivo reports
- Polymarket whale money reaches 12.3 million dollars across 875 large trades in 24 hours, led by Democratic House control at 4.2 million, Rivo reports
- Polymarket election contracts resolve through the UMA process with a two-hour challenge period, and recounts can delay payouts for weeks, Covers reports
- Kalshi's September 2027 Fed contract falls 51c to 65c, the biggest mover on the whole Kalshi leaderboard