Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Kalshi undercuts sportsbook prices on most Week 9 moneyline sides

BetFirm's Week 9 comparison, updated November 4, puts Kalshi and sportsbook prices on the same cents-on-the-dollar scale and finds 20 of 30 moneyline sides cheaper on Kalshi after its fee, along with 15 of 28 spread sides and 11 of 28 totals sides. The Jacksonville at Baltimore Thursday game alone shows about 1 million dollars in Kalshi volume.

BetFirm’s Week 9 NFL comparison found lower prices on Kalshi for 20 of 30 moneyline sides after accounting for the platform’s fee. The comparison was updated November 4, according to BetFirm.

Price differences vary by market

BetFirm expressed Kalshi and sportsbook prices in cents per dollar, allowing the two formats to be compared on a common scale. Its moneyline finding therefore reflects prices after Kalshi’s fee, rather than a comparison of headline prices alone.

The results were less favorable to Kalshi outside moneylines. According to BetFirm, Kalshi was cheaper on 15 of 28 spread sides and 11 of 28 totals sides.

That places moneylines first among the three categories by share of sides priced lower on Kalshi. Spreads cleared the halfway mark, while totals did not.

Thursday matchup draws volume

The Thursday game featuring Jacksonville at Baltimore alone showed about $1 million in Kalshi volume, according to BetFirm. That figure concerns one matchup, rather than the full Week 9 schedule.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Fees matter to comparisons: BetFirm’s 20-of-30 moneyline result includes Kalshi’s fee, making the fee-adjusted price the relevant benchmark.
  • The advantage is not uniform: The spread and totals counts show that lower Kalshi prices were not consistent across market types.
  • Volume has a defined scope: The roughly $1 million figure applies to Jacksonville at Baltimore and should not be read as a Week 9 aggregate.
KalshiNFLInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    BetFirm
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to BetFirm”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related