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Kalshi traders put near certainty on tech layoffs exceeding 2025

PredictionBubbles lists the tech layoffs contract as the most-traded market in its other category, up 3 points at 98.1 percent with 31.5 million dollars in volume on Kalshi. The same board lists a recession in 2026 contract at 3 percent on 4 million dollars.

A Kalshi contract asking whether tech layoffs in 2026 will exceed those in 2025 was trading at 98.1 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. The update was published Nov 4, 2026, at 3:45 PM ET.

Layoffs contract leads its category

PredictionBubbles ranked the contract as the most-traded market in its “other” category, with 31.5 million dollars in volume. Its price was up 3 points.

The ranking applies to that category, rather than establishing the contract as the most-traded market across Kalshi. The supplied summary does not specify the period over which the 3-point increase occurred.

Recession pricing presents a contrast

On the same board, a contract on a recession in 2026 stood at 3 percent, with 4 million dollars in volume, according to PredictionBubbles.

The two prices show markedly different expectations for the separate outcomes: traders assigned a high probability to tech layoffs exceeding the 2025 level, while pricing a recession in 2026 as unlikely. The summary provides no settlement criteria for either contract.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 98.1 percent price reflects near certainty in market pricing, not confirmation that the layoffs outcome has occurred.
  • The layoffs contract’s 31.5 million dollars in volume exceeds the recession contract’s 4 million dollars, but volume alone does not establish forecast accuracy.
  • The contracts concern different outcomes. Their contrasting prices should not be read as contradictory without examining their definitions and settlement rules.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
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    https://predictionbubbles.com
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