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Palantir call word bets show wide gap between Maven and Nvidia

Longbridge reports Kalshi traders price the words International and Maven at 98 percent each to be said during Palantir's third-quarter earnings call, with Sovereign AI at 86 percent and Nvidia at 61 percent. Analysts expected Palantir earnings of 41 cents per share on 2.18 billion dollars in revenue, up 84 percent year over year, ahead of the Monday report.

Kalshi traders assigned a 98 percent probability each to “International” and “Maven” being mentioned during Palantir’s third-quarter earnings call, according to Longbridge.

Four terms, different expectations

The same reporting put “Sovereign AI” at 86 percent and “Nvidia” at 61 percent. Those prices place International and Maven well above the other two terms in traders’ expectations for the call.

The contracts concern whether particular words will be spoken, rather than whether Palantir will meet earnings forecasts. Their prices therefore reflect expectations about the call’s language, not directly about its financial results.

Earnings expectations provide the backdrop

Ahead of the Monday report, analysts expected Palantir to earn 41 cents per share on revenue of 2.18 billion dollars, according to Longbridge. The revenue forecast represented growth of 84 percent year over year.

Longbridge’s account was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 8:45 AM ET. The supplied reporting gives mention-market prices and pre-report analyst expectations, but does not establish which terms were ultimately spoken or provide actual earnings results.

What it means for prediction markets

  • International and Maven were each priced at 98 percent, indicating very strong expectations of a mention, but not certainty.
  • Sovereign AI at 86 percent and Nvidia at 61 percent show a more differentiated outlook for those references.
  • The reported earnings forecasts provide context, but do not resolve contracts tied to the words used on the call.
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