Kalshi favorites show near-perfect results in registered midterm scorecard

Kalshi’s favorites won 31 of 32 called Senate races and 53 of 53 called House districts in a midterm scorecard graded by PredictionMarketPicks, according to the outlet’s November 4, 2026, update published at 10:45 PM ET.

A benchmark set before the election

PredictionMarketPicks registered the scorecard in August and evaluated it using Kalshi closing prices from the night of November 2. The reported results therefore compare a previously established scorecard with market favorites identified at that closing-price snapshot.

The figures cover called races: 32 Senate contests and 53 House districts. Within that group, the Senate results included one loss for a Kalshi favorite, while every House favorite won.

Differences from Sabato ratings

According to PredictionMarketPicks, the market favorite also prevailed in all nine races where its assessment differed from the final Sabato ratings by more than 10 points.

For the Senate, the final Sabato ratings scored 30 of 32, compared with Kalshi’s 31 of 32. That leaves the market favorites ahead by one correct result on the reported Senate comparison.

What it means for prediction markets

• The snapshot matters: These results assess favorites based on closing prices from the night of November 2, not market performance throughout the campaign.
• The scope is limited: The reported win totals apply to the called races included in the scorecard, rather than establishing a result for every midterm contest.
• Disagreements offer a distinct comparison: All nine races with a gap of more than 10 points from the final Sabato ratings went to the market favorite.
• Picking winners is not the same as calibrating probabilities: The supplied results establish how often favorites won, but do not provide a probability-calibration assessment.