Midterm traders take their election research beyond the screen
Veteran traders are doing offline field visits and voter data analysis ahead of the midterms, according to Bloomberg reporting cited by PANews on November 3. Kalshi trader Douglas Campbell, posting as AlexanderHam, has more than 800,000 dollars in profits, while Polymarket trader David Bensoussan, posting as Scottilicious, has more than 1.5 million dollars in profits and a position of more than 280,000 dollars backing Democrats to win the House.
Experienced prediction-market traders are using in-person voter outreach and voter data analysis to inform their positions ahead of the midterms, according to Bloomberg reporting cited by PANews on November 3.
The reporting describes offline field visits by traders seeking an information advantage in election markets. Their research puts direct contact with voters alongside analysis of voter data.
Traders and their positions
Kalshi trader Douglas Campbell, who posts as AlexanderHam, has more than 800,000 dollars in profits, according to the reporting cited by PANews.
On Polymarket, David Bensoussan, posting as Scottilicious, has more than 1.5 million dollars in profits. He also holds a position of more than 280,000 dollars backing Democrats to win the House.
Those figures establish the traders’ reported profits and the size of Bensoussan’s House position. The supplied summary does not establish how much, if any, of those profits resulted from field visits or voter data analysis.
What it means for prediction markets
- In-person outreach and voter data analysis are part of the research process for some experienced election traders, according to the reporting.
- Bensoussan’s position represents a substantial individual bet on Democrats winning the House, not evidence of a market-wide consensus.
- The summary provides no contract prices or implied probabilities, so it does not show whether this research has changed market expectations.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- PANews
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PANews”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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