Donalds odds diverge across prediction venues as Florida results arrive
Prediction News reports Kalshi priced Byron Donalds at 99 percent after polls closed on November 3, while Polymarket priced him at 82 percent early on November 4, a 17-point gap between the two venues as initial results arrived. Democrat David Jolly is Donalds' opponent in the race.
Kalshi and Polymarket showed a 17-point difference in their pricing of Byron Donalds in the Florida governor race as initial results arrived, according to Prediction News.
Two venues, different readings
Kalshi priced Donalds at 99 percent after polls closed on November 3. Polymarket priced him at 82 percent early on November 4, Prediction News reported.
Both prices favored Donalds, whose opponent is Democrat David Jolly. But Kalshi’s figure indicated substantially greater confidence than the price recorded on Polymarket.
Timing matters to the comparison
The figures reflect different observation windows: after the November 3 poll close for Kalshi and early November 4 for Polymarket. The summary does not establish that the two prices were captured simultaneously.
The report was published on November 4, 2026, at 9:45 AM ET. The supplied material does not explain the divergence or provide a final race outcome.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 17-point gap shows that the two venues offered different assessments of the same race, despite both favoring Donalds.
- The observation times matter: these figures alone do not establish a simultaneous pricing discrepancy.
- Without further information on contract terms or market activity, the reported prices do not explain why the venues differed.
Sources & attribution
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