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Concentrated election wagers put market signals under scrutiny

Athlitical, citing an Anti-Corruption Data Collective analysis of 21,811 midterm markets, reports traders had wagered more than 220 million dollars on 2026 congressional races through September 30, more than double the 92.4 million dollars across all of 2024. The analysis found 10 wallets control 17 percent of congressional volume on Polymarket, the top 1 percent account for 70 percent, and 76 percent of markets hold under 1,000 dollars.

Election prediction markets are drawing larger wagers, but trading remains concentrated among a small share of participants, according to Athlitical, citing an Anti-Corruption Data Collective analysis of 21,811 midterm markets.

Traders had wagered more than 220 million dollars on 2026 congressional races through September 30. That was more than double the 92.4 million dollars wagered across all of 2024, Athlitical reported.

Larger totals, uneven participation

The analysis found that 10 wallets control 17 percent of congressional volume on Polymarket, according to Athlitical. The top 1 percent account for 70 percent.

At the same time, 76 percent of markets hold under 1,000 dollars. The findings place the increase in aggregate wagering alongside a much thinner market-by-market picture: more money overall does not necessarily mean broad participation in individual contests.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume is not the same as consensus. Concentration among wallets complicates interpreting market signals as the judgment of a broad trading population.
  • Individual markets warrant separate scrutiny. With 76 percent holding under 1,000 dollars, aggregate wagering totals offer limited insight into the depth of a particular market.
  • The findings do not establish forecast accuracy. The reported figures describe wagering scale and concentration, rather than whether congressional market predictions will prove correct.
PolymarketElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Athlitical
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