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Kalshi favors Kreiss-Tomkins as Alaska polling shows a closer contest

The Kalshi market has drawn about 1,091,122 dollars in volume heading into the November 3 vote. Polling averages shown on the market page put Kreiss-Tomkins at 52.8 percent and Wilson at 44.5 percent, a much narrower gap than the market price.

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins was priced at 88 percent in Kalshi’s Alaska governor market, compared with 13 percent for Bernadette Wilson, according to Kalshi figures provided for Nov 3, 2026 · 4:15 AM ET.

The market had attracted about 1,091,122 dollars in trading volume heading into the November 3 vote, according to Kalshi.

Market confidence contrasts with polling

Polling averages displayed on the market page put Kreiss-Tomkins at 52.8 percent and Wilson at 44.5 percent. Those figures show a substantially smaller separation between the candidates than their market prices.

The distinction matters: polling percentages measure estimated voter support, while prediction-market prices express expectations about the outcome. A relatively close contest in vote share can therefore coexist with a strong market favorite.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Kreiss-Tomkins is the clear market favorite: His 88 percent price reflects substantially greater confidence in his prospects than Wilson’s 13 percent price.
  • The polling comparison requires care: The 52.8 percent and 44.5 percent averages are not win probabilities and should not be read as directly equivalent to market prices.
  • Volume does not establish accuracy: About 1,091,122 dollars in trading documents activity in the contract, not whether its pricing will match the November 3 result.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com
    Source URL
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