California billionaire tax odds decline in Election Day market snapshot

California’s billionaire tax ballot measure has lost ground in prediction-market pricing, according to Vantage Predictions’ Election Day snapshot. The reported probability of passage fell to 21.5% from 27.5% on Monday.

The update, published Nov 3, 2026 at 7:24 AM ET, places passage well below an even chance. The move represents a decline of 6 percentage points.

Kalshi pricing sits below the snapshot figure

Vantage Predictions also reported a 20.5% probability of passage on Kalshi. That is 1 percentage point below the 21.5% figure cited in the same snapshot.

The supplied summary does not explain the decline or provide trading volume, polling data or contract-resolution terms. It therefore establishes a change in market pricing, but not the reason behind it.

What it means for prediction markets

• Passage remains the less likely outcome in the reported pricing: Both 21.5% and Kalshi’s 20.5% imply a market assessment tilted against approval, not a settled election result.
• The Monday comparison shows a meaningful shift: The reported probability declined by 6 percentage points from 27.5%.
• The figures should remain distinct: The snapshot’s 21.5% reading and Kalshi’s 20.5% quote are separate reported prices; the supplied material does not explain their difference.