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Ossoff moves ahead of Vance in early 2028 presidential markets

Reuters reports that both venues showed the Georgia senator at 18 percent, up 5 percentage points and 3 points ahead of Vice President JD Vance, the first time Vance has not been the clear frontrunner to succeed Donald Trump. Neither man is yet an official candidate, and Ossoff has repeatedly denied he wants to run.

Georgia senator Jon Ossoff has become the favourite for the 2028 presidency on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with each venue showing him at 18 percent, according to Reuters.

The report, published Nov 5, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET, places Ossoff’s rise after the midterm sweep. His standing increased by 5 percentage points.

An early change in the lead

Ossoff now sits 3 points ahead of Vice President JD Vance, according to Reuters. The shift marks the first time Vance has not been the clear frontrunner to succeed Donald Trump.

Neither Ossoff nor Vance is an official candidate yet. Ossoff has also repeatedly denied that he wants to run, leaving a distinction between his position in the markets and his stated intentions.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Agreement across venues: Polymarket and Kalshi both showed Ossoff at 18 percent, putting him atop the early field on each platform.
  • A lead, not a majority probability: His 3-point advantage over Vance establishes a relative favourite, while the 18 percent reading still reflects substantial uncertainty.
  • Candidacy remains unresolved: Neither man has formally entered the race, and Ossoff’s repeated denials are relevant context when interpreting his market position.
KalshiPolymarketMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Reutersreuters.com
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    https://www.reuters.com
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