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Colombia strike contract draws $2.3 million in trading at 13 percent

World Monitor ranked the Colombia contract among the 15 most traded of its 50 tracked Polymarket and Kalshi markets in its November 5, 12:20 PM UTC reading. The contract closes on January 1, 2027.

A Polymarket contract on a US strike on Colombia by December 31 was priced at 13 percent, with $2.3 million traded, according to World Monitor.

The figures appeared in a report published on Nov 5, 2026, at 7:45 AM ET. They capture the contract’s reported price and trading volume, rather than evidence that a strike will occur.

Trading activity and timing

World Monitor placed the Colombia contract among the 15 most traded markets in its November 5, 12:20 PM UTC reading. Its tracked set comprised 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi.

That ranking applies to World Monitor’s monitored group, not necessarily to all contracts on either platform. The Colombia contract itself trades on Polymarket.

The event deadline is December 31, while the contract closes on January 1, 2027, according to World Monitor. Those are separate dates: one defines the strike window described in the contract, and the other marks its close.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Price signal: The reported 13 percent price places the strike outcome below an even-money likelihood, but does not establish whether it will happen.
  • Trading interest: The $2.3 million traded and top-15 placement indicate activity within World Monitor’s 50-market sample; neither measure alone shows the direction of traders’ views.
  • Timing matters: Readers should distinguish the December 31 event deadline from the January 1, 2027 contract close. The supplied summary does not include detailed resolution criteria.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
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