Talarico holds wide market lead over Paxton in Tarrant County
Polymarket says the market resolves on the candidate receiving the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the November 3 general election for United States Senator from Texas, with Ken Paxton priced at 6 percent.
James Talarico was priced at 92 percent on Polymarket to win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race, according to Polymarket. Ken Paxton was priced at 6 percent.
The figures appeared in an update published Nov 2, 2026, at 6:45 AM ET, ahead of the November 3 general election.
A county-level outcome
According to Polymarket, the market settles on which candidate receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas.
That makes the county result—not the statewide Senate outcome—the relevant measure. The reported prices strongly favor Talarico, but they are market pricing rather than a tally of votes.
What it means for prediction markets
- Resolution scope matters: The contract concerns the candidate with the most valid Tarrant County votes, not the winner across Texas.
- The pricing gap is substantial: Talarico’s 92 percent price compares with Paxton’s 6 percent.
- Timing matters: These figures reflect the Nov 2, 2026, update at 6:45 AM ET, before the November 3 election.
Sources & attribution
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