Earnings expectations diverge as Palantir leads Apple in Polymarket odds
TipRanks says Apple, Palantir and ON Semiconductor all report after the close on Monday, November 2, against Wall Street estimates of 2.02 dollars GAAP EPS for Apple, 42 cents adjusted for Palantir and 90 cents adjusted for ON Semiconductor. Apple and ON Semiconductor have each beaten or met estimates in 17 of the past 18 quarters, and Palantir in 15 of 18.
Polymarket puts Palantir’s probability of beating earnings estimates at 85 percent, ahead of Apple at 81 percent and ON Semiconductor at 55 percent, according to TipRanks.
All three companies are scheduled to report after the close on Monday, November 2, 2026. The pricing shows a stronger expectation of an earnings beat for Palantir and Apple than for ON Semiconductor.
Wall Street benchmarks and recent records
According to TipRanks, Wall Street expects Apple to deliver GAAP earnings per share of 2.02 dollars. The estimates for Palantir and ON Semiconductor are adjusted earnings per share of 42 cents and 90 cents, respectively.
Apple and ON Semiconductor have each met or exceeded estimates in 17 of the past 18 quarters, while Palantir has done so in 15 of 18, TipRanks says. Those historical counts include results that matched estimates, rather than only outright beats.
What it means for prediction markets
- Palantir has the highest implied beat probability of the three, despite having fewer quarters of meeting or exceeding estimates over the cited period.
- Apple and ON Semiconductor share the same historical record on that measure, but their current Polymarket probabilities differ substantially: 81 percent versus 55 percent.
- The earnings benchmarks are not uniform: Apple’s estimate is on a GAAP basis, while Palantir’s and ON Semiconductor’s are adjusted. The supplied material does not specify the contracts’ settlement rules.
Sources & attribution
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to TipRanks”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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