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Polymarket traders lift odds of Israel-Iran truce lasting through November 22

WinDailySports listed the November 22 outcome in the Israel-Iran ceasefire market among the biggest movers in the last 24 hours, up 16.5 points to 54 percent.

The Polymarket outcome for the Israel-Iran ceasefire continuing through November 22 rose 16.5 points to 54 percent over the last 24 hours, according to WinDailySports.

WinDailySports placed that outcome among the biggest movers during the period. The report was published on Oct 31, 2026, at 1:15 PM ET.

A deadline-specific shift

The move put the November 22 outcome above 50 percent. It reflects a change in market pricing for the ceasefire lasting through that date, rather than confirmation that it will do so.

The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the increase or provide trading-volume figures, liquidity information or the contract’s resolution criteria. Those omissions limit what can be concluded about the repricing beyond its size and reported level.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Reported probability: The November 22 outcome reached 54 percent after a 16.5-point increase over 24 hours.
  • Deadline matters: The reported price concerns the ceasefire continuing through November 22, not its durability beyond that date.
  • Limited context: Without a stated catalyst, trading data or resolution rules, the report does not establish why the market moved or how robust the new pricing is.
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Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    WinDailySports
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
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