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Lopez Aliaga contract drops as Lima market awaits settlement

PredictionBubbles showed the Lima mayoral market down 16.4 points in 24 hours to 73.1 percent on Polymarket, with 209,000 dollars traded over the market's life and 14,000 dollars in the last day. The market is listed as awaiting settlement after its scheduled October 5 resolution date.

Rafael Lopez Aliaga’s probability of winning the next Lima mayoral elections, as priced on Polymarket, fell 16.4 points in 24 hours to 73.1 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.

The update, published Oct 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, showed 209,000 dollars traded over the market’s lifetime. Trading in the last day totaled 14,000 dollars.

Settlement remains pending

PredictionBubbles listed the market as awaiting settlement after its scheduled October 5 resolution date. The reported price movement therefore occurred while the contract remained unsettled beyond that date.

The supplied summary does not explain the decline or the settlement delay. It also provides no election result, leaving the market’s quoted probability distinct from a confirmed outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 16.4-point decline marks a substantial repricing, although the contract still stood at 73.1 percent.
  • The 14,000 dollars traded in the last day provides context for the move but does not establish what caused it.
  • With settlement pending beyond October 5, the latest trading price should not be treated as confirmation of the election result.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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