Bottoms gains in Georgia betting markets despite deadlocked final survey

Prediction markets favored Keisha Lance Bottoms in the Georgia governor race despite a final poll showing an even contest with Rick Jackson, according to Action Network’s Nov 3, 2026 report, published at 7:45 PM ET.

Bottoms moved from 68 cents on the morning board to 72 cents on both Kalshi and Polymarket, Action Network reported. Jackson fell to 29 cents.

Market pricing diverges from the poll

InsiderAdvantage’s final survey put Bottoms and Jackson at 49 percent each, according to Action Network. That left the candidates tied in the poll even as market prices moved toward Bottoms.

The figures measure different things: the survey records voter support, while the contracts price an election outcome. The contrast is therefore between a tied polling snapshot and a market assessment favoring Bottoms—not a direct comparison of vote shares.

Margin markets also favor Democrats

According to Action Network, Kalshi’s margin forecast stood at Democrats by 2.4 points. On Polymarket, the leading Democratic margin bracket was 3 to 6 points, priced at 38 cents.

Kalshi’s forecast was thus just below the lower end of Polymarket’s leading bracket. Both pointed toward a Democratic advantage, although a single margin forecast and a priced range are not equivalent measures.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction of travel: Bottoms’ rise from 68 cents to 72 cents shows a strengthening market assessment despite the tied final survey.
• Cross-platform agreement: Kalshi and Polymarket both priced Bottoms at 72 cents, according to Action Network.
• Margin uncertainty remains: Kalshi’s Democrats-by-2.4-points forecast and Polymarket’s 3-to-6-point bracket at 38 cents offer distinct views of the potential winning margin.
• The discrepancy is not explained: The supplied reporting does not identify what drove the price movement or why markets favored Bottoms over the polling tie.