Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Gemini Titan targets November inflation threshold with new event contract

Gemini Titan notified the CFTC on October 29 that it intends to list an event contract asking whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics November CPI-U year-over-year change is above 3.7 percent, for trading no earlier than November 2. Trading in the contract ends at 8:25 AM ET on December 10, five minutes before the scheduled BLS release, and the contract expires at 9:00 AM ET that day.

Filing sets a 3.7 percent test

Gemini Titan notified the CFTC on October 29 of plans to list an event contract tied to whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics November CPI-U year-over-year change exceeds 3.7 percent, according to CFTC records described in the supplied summary.

The notice specifies that trading could begin no earlier than November 2. It establishes an intended listing, rather than confirming that trading has begun.

December 10 release anchors the schedule

Trading in the contract ends at 8:25 AM ET on December 10, five minutes before the scheduled BLS release. The contract expires at 9:00 AM ET that day.

The question turns on a strict threshold: whether the November year-over-year change is above 3.7 percent. A reading equal to 3.7 percent would not exceed that threshold.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The contract isolates a specific inflation outcome: November CPI-U year-over-year growth above 3.7 percent.
  • The trading cutoff precedes the scheduled BLS publication by five minutes, separating the trading window from the release.
  • The October 29 notification and November 2 earliest trading date do not, on their own, establish whether the contract is live.
CFTCInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    CFTC
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to CFTC”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related