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Donalds retains Florida market lead as Kalshi price retreats

DeFi Rate averages Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US prices observed on the morning of November 3 at 64 percent for Republican Byron Donalds and 37 percent for Democrat David Jolly in the Florida governor race. Donalds last traded at 63 percent on Kalshi, down from 82 percent on October 23, and the market drew 2.2 million dollars of combined volume in 24 hours, about 90 percent of it on Kalshi.

Republican Byron Donalds remained the favorite in prediction markets for Florida governor on the morning of November 3, according to DeFi Rate. Its average of prices on Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US put Donalds at 64 percent and Democrat David Jolly at 37 percent.

A narrower Election Day advantage

DeFi Rate’s November 3, 2026 update, published at 7:00 AM ET, described a 15-point weekly decline for Donalds on Kalshi. Despite that retreat, the reported cross-platform average continued to favor him on Election Day.

Donalds last traded at 63 percent on Kalshi, compared with 82 percent on October 23, according to DeFi Rate. Those two observations represent a 19-percentage-point decline over that longer period, distinct from the reported weekly move.

Trading concentrated on Kalshi

The Florida governor market recorded $2.2 million in combined trading volume over 24 hours, according to DeFi Rate. About 90 percent of that activity took place on Kalshi.

That concentration makes Kalshi central to the reported trading picture. Its latest Donalds price was one percentage point below the cross-platform average, although the supplied figures do not show the individual prices on Polymarket or Polymarket US.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Favorite, but with a reduced advantage: Donalds’ 64 percent average remained above Jolly’s 37 percent, even after the reported decline.
  • Time frames matter: The 15-point weekly slide and the 19-point drop from October 23 to the latest Kalshi trade describe different measurement periods.
  • The averages are not complementary: The reported 64 percent and 37 percent figures total 101 percent; they should not be presented as a single normalized probability split.
  • Volume was unevenly distributed: Kalshi accounted for about 90 percent of the $2.2 million traded in 24 hours, rather than activity being spread evenly across the three venues.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
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