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Kalshi Bitcoin test challenges late-window caution on heavily favored contracts

PredictionMarketPicks tested the popular rule against buying 80 cent or higher favorites after the 12:30 mark against every trade in 1,258 windows and a five-second order book. Favorites bought in the final 60 seconds won 97.1 percent of the time and netted 2.67 cents per contract, which it attributes to the 60-print average settlement rule.

A test of Kalshi’s 15-minute Bitcoin markets found that the final minute delivered the strongest results for favorites, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Its findings challenge a popular rule against buying favorites priced at 80 cents or higher after the 12:30 mark.

Late-window results

PredictionMarketPicks examined every trade across 1,258 windows alongside a five-second order book. The analysis found no performance cliff at 12:30, the cutoff targeted by the trading rule.

Favorites purchased during the final 60 seconds won 97.1 percent of the time and netted 2.67 cents per contract, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Those results describe the tested windows, rather than establishing what subsequent trades will return.

Settlement mechanics

PredictionMarketPicks attributes the final-minute results to the 60-print average used for settlement. Its explanation links the observed performance to how the market determines its outcome, rather than simply to how little time remains before a window closes.

The findings were published on Nov 4, 2026, at 11:15 PM ET. The supplied summary does not detail the net-return calculation or provide further breakdowns by purchase price.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The timing rule faces contrary evidence: In this 1,258-window test, avoiding favorites priced at 80 cents or higher after 12:30 was not supported by an observed cliff at that cutoff.
  • Settlement design matters: PredictionMarketPicks identifies the 60-print average settlement rule as the explanation for the final-minute advantage.
  • Win rates and returns are distinct: The reported 97.1 percent win rate sits alongside a net gain of 2.67 cents per contract; neither figure alone establishes future performance.
KalshiBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionMarketPicks
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