Infiniti FeedNov 3, 2026 · 7:45 AM ET

December Fed hike odds trail futures despite prediction markets’ perfect streak

PredictionMarketsPicks reports the market favorite has won all 15 Fed decisions since 2025 on Kalshi and Polymarket, and prices a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 meeting at 71.5 percent on Kalshi and 72.5 percent on Polymarket. Fed funds futures imply 78.9 percent for the same hike, a 7.4 point gap with Kalshi, with a hold priced at 27 percent on Kalshi.

Prediction markets favor a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate increase at the December 8-9 meeting, but their odds sit below those implied by fed funds futures, according to PredictionMarketsPicks.

The outlet’s update, published Nov 3, 2026 at 7:45 AM ET, also reports that the favored outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket has matched all 15 Fed decisions since 2025.

December pricing diverges

Kalshi assigns a 71.5 percent probability to a 25 basis point hike, while Polymarket puts that outcome at 72.5 percent, according to PredictionMarketsPicks. Both therefore make the increase the leading outcome.

Fed funds futures imply a 78.9 percent probability for the same hike. That is 7.4 percentage points above Kalshi’s pricing, placing the futures-implied probability higher than either prediction-market estimate.

A perfect record, not a guarantee

Kalshi prices a hold at 27 percent. Although a hike is favored, that reading leaves a substantial probability attached to unchanged rates.

The reported 15-for-15 record describes whether the favorite won, rather than whether its assigned probability was accurate. It does not establish that the December favorite will prevail.

What it means for prediction markets

The central comparison is across markets: Kalshi’s 71.5 percent and Polymarket’s 72.5 percent hike probabilities are below the 78.9 percent implied by futures.
The gap is measurable, but unexplained: PredictionMarketsPicks identifies a 7.4-percentage-point difference between futures and Kalshi; the supplied summary does not explain its cause.
Past outcomes and current uncertainty are distinct: The favorite has won all 15 decisions since 2025, but Kalshi’s 27 percent hold probability still signals uncertainty about December 8-9.

KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published: Nov 3, 2026 · 7:45 AM ET

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PredictionMarketsPicks
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December Fed hike odds trail futures despite prediction markets’ perfect streak

December pricing diverges

A perfect record, not a guarantee

What it means for prediction markets

Sources & attribution

Related

December pricing diverges

A perfect record, not a guarantee

What it means for prediction markets