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Ethereum downside contract draws $19.1 million as odds remain low

The market closes January 1, 2027 and ranks among the 15 most traded markets World Monitor tracks across Polymarket and Kalshi in its November 1 live reading.

According to World Monitor, Polymarket priced an Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026 at 10.9%, with $19.1 million traded.

A heavily traded downside market

The contract ranked among the 15 most traded markets in World Monitor’s tracked universe across Polymarket and Kalshi. That ranking appeared in its November 1 live reading.

The report was published on November 1, 2026, at 4:15 AM ET. Its probability and trading-volume figures represent that snapshot, rather than a final outcome.

The market closes January 1, 2027, while the price event specified in the headline runs through December 31, 2026. The supplied material does not include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 10.9% pricing indicates that the specified Ethereum decline was a low-probability outcome in this snapshot, not an impossibility.
  • The $19.1 million traded and top-15 ranking establish the contract’s prominence within World Monitor’s coverage, but do not establish the forecast’s accuracy.
  • The event deadline and market closing date are distinct. Without the resolution criteria, the precise conditions for a qualifying price dip remain unspecified.
KalshiPolymarketEthereumInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
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